Diverging Analyst Views Emerge as CryptoQuant Signals Possible $92K BTC Decline
Asia Morning Briefing: Bitcoin Steady as Analysts Clash on Direction; Semler Aims for 105,000 BTC by 2027
PLUS: New research says crypto treasury firms may carry less risk than widely believed.
Bitcoin (BTC) was holding above $104,500 early Thursday in Asia, staying largely stable despite rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Over the past week, BTC has dipped only around 2%, according to CoinDesk data, reflecting a market locked in a period of low volatility.
Yet analysts remain split over whether this quiet stretch signals resilience—or masks underlying vulnerability.
Three fresh reports this week from CryptoQuant, Glassnode, and trading firm Flowdesk all paint a similar surface picture: muted price swings, tight trading ranges, and subdued on-chain activity. Retail engagement has shrunk, leaving institutional players such as ETFs and whales to steer market flows.
Among those voices, CryptoQuant is sounding the sharpest warning.
In its June 19 note, CryptoQuant suggested bitcoin could slip back to $92,000—or possibly fall to $81,000—if demand continues to weaken. While spot buying persists, it’s well below historical norms. ETF flows have dropped over 60% since April, and whale accumulation has been cut in half. Meanwhile, short-term holders—typically newer market entrants—have sold off roughly 800,000 BTC since late May.
CryptoQuant’s demand momentum metric, which tracks buying across key market participants, has plunged to negative 2 million BTC, the lowest in its records.
Glassnode, however, sees a different message in the same data.
In its weekly on-chain report, Glassnode highlighted that bitcoin’s blockchain has been “quiet,” with lower transaction volumes, minimal fees, and softer miner revenues. Yet the firm argues this isn’t necessarily bearish. Instead, it reflects a maturing market, where settlement volumes remain high but are now concentrated in large, institutional-sized transactions.
Glassnode also noted how derivatives markets have overshadowed spot trading, with futures and options volumes surpassing spot by as much as 16-to-1. This shift has ushered in more sophisticated hedging and steadier market mechanics, albeit with less retail-driven excitement.
Flowdesk, meanwhile, takes a middle ground.
The French trading firm describes the market as “coiled, not cracking.” While altcoin flows have thinned and market-making volumes remain subdued, Flowdesk sees encouraging signals. Tokenized assets like gold-backed XAUT have surged in activity, stablecoin usage is expanding, and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization is gaining momentum.
Flowdesk believes low volatility could simply be the calm before a significant directional move—not necessarily a downward one.
Amid all the uncertainty, no clear consensus exists on bitcoin’s next move. Even traders on prediction market Polymarket remain nearly evenly split on whether BTC could slide to $90,000 in June or surge toward $115,000–$120,000.
One thing is certain: the tension between strong institutional participation and fading retail enthusiasm leaves bitcoin poised for potential volatility in either direction.
Presto Research: Crypto Treasury Firms Not Just “Leveraged BTC Bets”
Meanwhile, Presto Research has released a new report arguing that Crypto Treasury Companies (CTCs)—like Strategy and Metaplanet—are more than just leveraged bitcoin ETFs and may carry less risk than many investors assume.
Strategy’s recent $1 billion raise via perpetual preferred shares illustrates how bitcoin volatility can be harnessed for financial engineering. Instruments such as perpetual preferred shares, convertible bonds, and at-the-market (ATM) equity programs allow CTCs to accumulate bitcoin without the margin calls that have sunk previous crypto firms.
Presto highlighted that Strategy’s BTC is unpledged and Metaplanet’s bonds are unsecured, reducing the risk of forced liquidations that triggered collapses like Celsius and Three Arrows.
Still, Presto cautioned that the main threat for CTCs isn’t exposure to crypto itself but rather managing dilution, cash flow, and capital timing. Metaplanet’s “bitcoin yield,” which tracks BTC per fully diluted share, reflects a focus on preserving shareholder value.
When well-managed, these firms can trade at premiums to their net asset value, much like fast-growing tech stocks. But if mismanaged, the financial tools that fuel growth could also accelerate their decline.
Semler Scientific Targets Aggressive Bitcoin Accumulation
Semler Scientific (Nasdaq: SMLR) has unveiled one of the boldest bitcoin accumulation plans in corporate history. The California-based medical device company, which pivoted to a bitcoin treasury model last year, intends to grow its holdings to 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025, 42,000 by 2026, and an eye-popping 105,000 BTC by the end of 2027.
This would more than double Semler’s current stash of 4,449 BTC in the next 30 months.
The company plans to fund its purchases through a mix of equity offerings, debt financing, and operating cash flow. Historically, Semler has relied on its ATM equity program, which depends on its stock trading above its net asset value.
However, Strategy-Tracker data shows that Semler’s market NAV multiple sits at just 0.859x, suggesting the company’s stock is trading at a discount to its bitcoin holdings. That could hamper its ability to raise capital at attractive terms.
Investors are watching closely to see how Semler executes its strategy. Despite bitcoin hitting record highs above $100,000, Semler’s stock has fallen nearly 40% so far this year.
Market Snapshot
- BTC: Bitcoin remains trapped below $105,000 despite robust ETF inflows. Resistance around $105,150 persists, with institutional buying offset by macro volatility and short-term bearish sentiment.
- ETH: Ethereum is holding above $2,490 after a high-volume selloff breached support levels. Price is consolidating tightly, with a potential breakout if resistance at $2,510 is cleared.
- Gold: Gold hovered around $3,366 on Thursday, steady as geopolitical tensions counterbalanced the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. Platinum pulled back after nearly reaching a 10-year high. U.S. markets were closed Wednesday for Juneteenth.
- Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened 0.24% higher Friday, with Asia-Pacific markets largely positive ahead of China’s loan prime rate announcement and continued Israel-Iran tensions.
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