Coinbase Expected to Post Strong Third-Quarter Earnings as Analyst Views Clash

Analysts Expect Coinbase to Beat in Q3, but Diverge Sharply on Long-Term Outlook

Wall Street analysts agree on short-term strength from USDC and trading, but remain divided on Base, Deribit, and margins.

Coinbase (COIN) is set to release its third-quarter earnings on Thursday after the market close, with analysts broadly expecting a revenue beat but differing on what it means for the company’s trajectory.

Consensus estimates compiled by FactSet call for earnings per share of $1.14 on $1.8 billion in revenue, compared with $0.28 and $1.2 billion in the same period last year.

While analysts at JPMorgan, Barclays, and Compass Point see strength from USDC yields, blockchain rewards, and trading activity, their outlooks for profitability and strategic growth diverge sharply.

JPMorgan’s Kenneth Worthington upgraded Coinbase to Overweight with a $404 price target for December 2026, citing potential upside from a Base token launch. He estimates such a token could achieve a $12 billion–$34 billion valuation, with Coinbase potentially retaining up to 40% — adding $14–$42 per share in value. Worthington also sees additional earnings growth from Coinbase One, which restricts stablecoin yields to paying members.

Barclays’ Benjamin Budish, who maintains an Equal Weight rating, expects adjusted EBITDA to come in 6% above consensus, supported by retail trading and higher interest income from USDC. He forecasts $1.05 billion in transaction revenue and $771 million from subscriptions and services, both topping expectations. However, he trimmed his price target to $361 from $365, citing general multiple compression.

Compass Point’s Ed Engel remains bearish, reiterating a Sell rating. While he expects a mild earnings beat, Engel warns that a shift toward lower-margin subscription revenues and rising staking payouts could weigh on profitability. He also sees limited benefit from the Deribit acquisition, noting rising competition from regulated U.S. derivatives platforms such as CBOE.

All three agree that USDC has become an increasingly important earnings driver through Coinbase’s partnership with Circle (CRCL). Still, they differ on how much of that income Coinbase can retain as it refines reward structures and pushes users toward premium tiers.

As Coinbase expands deeper into subscription models, Layer-2 infrastructure, and derivatives, Thursday’s results will serve as a key test — not just of quarterly performance, but of which analyst view on its future ultimately proves correct.