Citi Forecasts $135K Bitcoin by Year-End, Eyes $199K in Best-Case Scenario

Citi Sees Bitcoin Hitting $135K by Year-End, with Bull Case Targeting $199K

Wall Street bank Citi has revised its year-end Bitcoin forecast, projecting a base-case target of $135,000 as institutional demand and user growth continue to shape the market. In a bullish scenario, the bank sees BTC surging to $199,000, while a weaker macro environment could drag the price down to $64,000.

The updated outlook reflects new valuation models that incorporate user adoption trends, macroeconomic conditions, and inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. The report, released Thursday, suggests that these three factors are now the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s price action.

Citi’s analysts estimate that a 20% increase in user activity and continued network growth would justify a price around $75,000. Soft performance in equities and gold reduces the target slightly, by about $3,200. However, the bank also expects $15 billion in new ETF inflows, which could add roughly $63,000 to Bitcoin’s price — leading to the $135,000 base-case projection.

Since the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, institutional inflows have become a dominant force, with Citi estimating that ETF activity now explains over 40% of BTC’s recent price volatility.

While user adoption remains central to the forecast, Citi notes that crypto is becoming increasingly tied to broader financial markets. Growing ETF participation, index inclusion, and regulatory clarity are positioning Bitcoin as a mainstream investment vehicle.

The bank also believes the risks to its forecast lean to the upside. ETF demand is outpacing expectations, and network activity has proven more resilient than initially modeled, potentially extending the impact of adoption-driven price momentum.

“Bitcoin is no longer just driven by retail enthusiasm or technology adoption,” Citi’s report concluded. “Institutional flows and macro conditions are now equally critical to its trajectory.”