Cathie Wood’s ARK Notes Bitcoin Losing Steam Amid Record Accumulation by Long-Term Holders

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Reach Record Levels as New Investor Activity Slows, Says ARK Invest

Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) now control a record portion of the circulating supply, even as new investment in the market appears to be losing momentum, according to ARK Invest’s latest monthly report for June.

The report shows bitcoin managed a modest 2.55% increase in June, but the rally stalled below May’s peak of $112,000, signaling ongoing price consolidation rather than a decisive breakout.

A key insight from ARK’s analysis is that long-term holders now account for roughly 74% of bitcoin’s circulating supply, the highest level seen in 15 years. This signals steadfast confidence among seasoned investors, even as the flow of new capital into the market seems to be slowing.

Supporting this observation, ARK’s report highlights a decline in on-chain capital movement during the second quarter. The firm’s Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) momentum metric points to reduced transaction activity and a cooler sentiment among traders.

On the macroeconomic front, ARK notes the U.S. dollar remains strong, as tracked by the Federal Reserve’s Nominal Broad Trade Weighted Dollar Index. This resilience runs contrary to widespread predictions of dollar weakness, a narrative that has often underpinned bullish arguments for bitcoin.

Meanwhile, U.S. inflation continues to ease, casting doubt on bitcoin’s reputation as a hedge against rising prices. However, ARK suggests that lower inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which might boost interest in riskier assets, including technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.

The report also flags potential trouble in the housing market. ARK observed an increasing gap between high homeowner price expectations and falling home sales, signaling growing consumer caution that could weigh on broader economic performance.