Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch has sharply reduced his outlook on Strategy (MSTR), slashing his 12-month price target to $229 from $560 as the company loses its ability to raise equity at a premium to its bitcoin holdings. The lowered target still implies nearly 30% upside from the current share price of $180, and Knoblauch reaffirmed his overweight rating.
Strategy’s long-running playbook—raising capital through common stock, preferred shares, and convertible debt to buy more bitcoin—has broken down over the past year. For much of the post-2020 cycle, investors rewarded the company with a steep premium over the value of its bitcoin treasury, enabling a powerful flywheel that helped propel MSTR to massive gains. But with bitcoin stagnating and investor enthusiasm for leveraged exposure fading, the stock has fallen nearly 70% from its late-2024 peak.
Cantor now estimates Strategy’s fully adjusted market net asset value multiple (mNAV) at just 1.18x—still above parity, but a fraction of the lofty levels seen in previous years. At this lower multiple, issuing common equity risks being dilutive, limiting CEO Michael Saylor’s ability to fuel additional bitcoin purchases. As a result, Knoblauch cut his forecast for Strategy’s annual capital-raising capability to $7.8 billion from $22.5 billion. The valuation assigned to Strategy’s treasury operations dropped from $364 per share to just $74.
Even so, Knoblauch isn’t abandoning the company’s long-term prospects. “This is a function of both falling bitcoin prices and lower multiples,” he wrote, arguing that the strategic model could revive if bitcoin strengthens and investor appetite returns.
A separate report from Mizuho struck a more constructive tone, noting Strategy’s improved liquidity following a $1.44 billion equity raise. Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins said the company now has enough cash to cover roughly 21 months of preferred dividend payments, giving it stability without having to sell bitcoin.
During a recent Mizuho event, CFO Andrew Kang emphasized a disciplined stance on fundraising. He said Strategy has no plans to refinance its convertible debt until the first maturity in 2028, and will rely instead on preferred equity issuances that protect its bitcoin reserves. Kang also reiterated that new common equity offerings will resume only once the mNAV rises above 1, signaling that the market again values Strategy’s bitcoin stack at a premium. If that threshold is not met and conditions worsen, bitcoin sales could be considered—but only as a last resort.
The company’s approach echoes its playbook from 2022, when it halted bitcoin purchases during a market slump and resumed accumulating once conditions turned. Analysts say maintaining liquidity and patience may allow Strategy to weather the current downturn and reaccelerate its model if the macro backdrop improves.
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