Bull Market Breakout or Temporary Relief Rally? The Answer Lies Ahead.

Relief Rally or Just a Mirage? Markets Rebound, But Doubts Linger

Markets staged an explosive comeback on Wednesday, but some experts warn it may be nothing more than a temporary reprieve rather than the start of a lasting bull run.

Spurred by President Donald Trump’s surprise 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries—excluding China—both stocks and crypto soared. The S&P 500 notched its biggest daily gain since the financial crisis, while bitcoin (BTC) and the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rode the wave higher, feeding a wave of euphoria on social media.

But not everyone’s buying the hype.

Veteran analysts, including those at Goldman Sachs, caution that these kinds of rallies often happen in the middle of bear markets, not at the end. “Markets can bounce hard even during downturns,” wrote Peter Oppenheimer and his team at Goldman in a research note titled ‘Bear Market Anatomy’. Their data shows there have been nearly 20 such rebounds since the 1980s, typically lasting about six weeks and delivering double-digit returns—before fading again.

Callum Thomas, founder of Topdown Charts, drew parallels to the Great Depression, pointing out that the 1930s were full of sharp rallies that turned out to be traps. “Could this 90-day window just be another bear market rally in disguise?” he asked on X.

Despite the enthusiasm, the necessary ingredients for a durable recovery don’t appear to be in place. Stocks aren’t especially cheap, the Fed remains hawkish, and macro conditions haven’t shown enough improvement. Meanwhile, the tariff threat still looms over China, raising fears of renewed tension once the pause expires.

For now, the markets are celebrating. But beneath the surface, the question remains: are investors seeing the light at the end of the tunnel—or just a temporary flash?