BTC Suffers Worst Q1 Performance Since 2014 — Is the Bull Market Losing Steam?

Bitcoin has stumbled into the new year, closing out Q1 2025 with an 11.7% loss — its weakest first-quarter showing in a decade. The slide has left traders and analysts debating whether the digital asset is entering a broader downtrend or simply pausing after a euphoric late-2024 rally.

The drop, according to NYDIG Research, ranks as the 12th worst Q1 performance in the past 15 years. It’s a rare cold start for BTC, a market often fueled by narratives and momentum. The last time bitcoin kicked off the year this poorly was in 2015 — a period marked by a long hangover from the 2013 bull run and the implosion of Mt. Gox.

In contrast, Q1 2020 saw a smaller 9.4% loss for bitcoin as pandemic fears swept markets, only for BTC to roar back and end the year with gains of over 300%. But other years with Q1 slumps — such as 2014, 2018, and 2022 — marked the onset of deeper bear cycles.

What’s different this time?

Optimism surged in late 2024 following Donald Trump’s election victory, as his pro-crypto rhetoric gave the market a shot of adrenaline. Regulatory pressures eased, and the SEC began walking back several enforcement actions, improving sentiment among both retail and institutional investors.

But that optimism was quickly tested. Last week, President Trump’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs jolted global markets. U.S. equities wiped out $5.4 trillion in value within two days, with the Nasdaq sliding into bear territory. Bitcoin outperformed relative to stocks, but the environment remains fragile.

BTC has so far managed to hold above the $80,000 level, signaling potential resilience. But as NYDIG notes, a weak Q1 doesn’t always doom the year — it simply adds uncertainty. With economic storm clouds gathering and fears of a global slowdown mounting, BTC’s status as a “macro hedge” or “U.S. isolation hedge” will face real-world tests in the coming months.

The cycle isn’t dead — but it’s no longer running on pure momentum.