BTC Sees 2.5-Month High in Implied Volatility as Seasonal Strength Supports Moves

Bitcoin Implied Volatility Hits 2.5-Month High as Seasonal Trends Support Rally

Bitcoin (BTC, $118,200) implied volatility (IV) has reached a 2.5-month peak, reflecting recent price momentum and seasonal patterns pointing to a potentially strong Q4.

Volmex’s Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (BVIV), which measures annualized expected price swings over four weeks, climbed to 42%, the highest since late August, according to TradingView. Higher IV indicates traders anticipate larger price movements in the near term.

The rise in IV comes as Bitcoin recovered from a recent pullback from record highs above $126,000 to around $120,000.

Seasonal Trends
Historically, October sees spikes in both volatility and returns. BVIV surged in the same period in 2023 and 2024, and 2025 shows similar dynamics. Coinglass data indicates Bitcoin has averaged roughly 6% weekly gains in late October, while November historically delivers the strongest returns, often exceeding 45%.

Market Context
Bitcoin’s IV typically rises during price pullbacks, demonstrating an inverse relationship between volatility and price. Over the long term, IV has gradually declined, reflecting Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset.