Bitcoin’s 180-Day Call-Put Skew Drops to Lowest Level in Two Years, Hinting at Bearish Market Sentiment Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of a potential bearish shift as key market indicators point to increased caution ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
The 180-day call-put skew on Deribit—the largest cryptocurrency options exchange by volume and open interest—has fallen to -0.42, its most negative reading since June 2023, according to data from Amberdata. A negative skew indicates that traders are favoring put options, which provide downside protection, over call options, reflecting a more cautious or bearish outlook over the medium term.
Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insights, remarked on social media, “BTC longer dated skew flipping into put premium could be a sign of regime shift.”
This marks a significant reversal after two years of positive skew values, which suggested a predominantly bullish sentiment among options traders. Notably, Bitcoin has only declined about 8% from its all-time highs above $124,000 reached last week, yet the long-term market sentiment has turned cautious.
Lakha added that the recent price correction has increased demand for put options:
“BTC and ETH skews are pulling toward put premium as markets correct. BTC doesn’t show a call premium again until March 2026. The move lower triggered buying of August/September puts around the $110,000 strike. Calls and call spreads are being sold as longs de-risk into Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.”
Anticipation Builds Ahead of Powell’s Speech
Jerome Powell is expected to speak at the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Market participants largely expect Powell to hint at interest rate cuts starting in September.
Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard noted, “Much of the anticipated rate cuts are already priced in. If Powell’s speech meets expectations, crypto could trade sideways to slightly bearish in a classic ‘sell the news’ reaction. However, if the Fed signals deeper or faster cuts, it could reignite risk appetite and spark the next bullish rally.”
Risk Hedging Seen Across Markets
Similar caution is observed on Wall Street, where traders have been purchasing put options on major tech ETFs to hedge against potential sell-offs.
Jeff Jacobson, head of derivative strategy at 22V Research Group, told Bloomberg, “Traders are buying ‘disaster’ puts on the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100.”
Technical Indicators Point to Growing Downside Pressure
The Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) indicator, which analyzes short- and long-term moving averages to identify trend shifts, also signals bearish momentum. Bitcoin’s price has dipped below the GMMA bands, suggesting weakening bullish control and the potential for further downside.
Other technical measures, including the MACD histogram, align with this view, highlighting increasing downward momentum.
In summary, both options market data and technical analysis point toward rising caution among Bitcoin traders as they await Powell’s pivotal speech, which could determine the near-term direction of the crypto market.
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