Bitcoin is on track to post back-to-back losses in January and February for the first time in its history, capping off its weakest start to a year on record.
Fifty days into 2026, bitcoin is down 23% year to date, according to data from Checkonchain. The cryptocurrency fell 10% in January and has slid another 15% in February so far, putting it on course for its poorest opening stretch of any financial year.
Historical data from Coinglass shows that while bitcoin has experienced double-digit January declines in years such as 2015, 2016, and 2018, each of those drawdowns was followed by a rebound in February. A second straight monthly loss would mark a break from that pattern and represent the weakest consecutive monthly performance since 2022.
Checkonchain’s index metrics also highlight the scale of the downturn. In a typical bearish year, the index averages around 0.84 at the 50-day mark — a level traders use to assess cyclical drawdowns. Bitcoin currently sits at 0.77, signaling deeper-than-average weakness.
The soft start follows a 17% decline in 2025, a post-election year. Historically, post-election years have tended to outperform election years and have, on aggregate, delivered stronger returns than other up years. Against that backdrop, bitcoin’s continued underperformance in early 2026 stands out even more sharply.
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