BTC CME Futures Spread Falls to $490, Erasing Post-Trump Rally Effect

Bitcoin Futures Spread Narrows as Market Sentiment Shifts Beyond Trump Effect

The idea that a pro-crypto president would be an enduring catalyst for Bitcoin appears to be fading, as traders refocus on macroeconomic forces driving the market.

The post-election rally that followed Donald Trump’s victory on Nov. 5 has now fully reversed, according to an indicator tied to CME Bitcoin (BTC) futures.

The spread between continuous next-month and front-month BTC futures has tightened to $495—the lowest level since Election Day—after reaching a peak of $1,705 on Dec. 17, per TradingView data. The contraction suggests that bullish momentum tied to Trump’s pro-crypto stance has largely dissipated.

“The narrowing futures spread signals that traders are dialing back their expectations for Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the short term,” said Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, in a statement to CoinDesk.

This shift indicates that markets are no longer viewing a crypto-friendly administration as a primary driver of Bitcoin’s value. Instead, broader macroeconomic trends, including inflation concerns, trade policy shifts, and global financial conditions, have taken center stage.

Market Pressures Mount Amid Broader Economic Uncertainty

Bitcoin’s recent losses align with a broader market downturn. BTC has fallen 20% since early February, mirroring an 8% decline in the Nasdaq, as investors grapple with renewed trade tensions, economic slowdown fears, and ongoing geopolitical instability.

Adding to investor disappointment was the muted reaction to Trump’s announcement of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, designed to hold seized BTC rather than actively purchase new assets.

“The market had anticipated fresh Bitcoin purchases, but instead, the reserve is focused on maintaining government-held assets,” noted Ian Balina, founder of Token Metrics. “This led to a sharp drop in Bitcoin’s price as traders recalibrated their expectations.”

Futures Market Structure Remains Intact

Despite the tightening spread between near-term Bitcoin futures contracts, the overall futures market remains in contango, meaning longer-dated contracts continue to trade at a premium.

This structure is typical across financial markets due to storage and financing costs, as well as longer-term bullish expectations.

“Perpetual funding rates are still positive, and the futures curve remains in contango, suggesting that recent price action was driven more by unleveraged spot selling than by a broader market breakdown,” Erdösi explained.

With the Trump rally now in the rearview mirror, Bitcoin’s next moves will likely be dictated by larger economic forces, investor sentiment, and regulatory clarity in the months ahead.