BTC Climbs While Economy Falters — Is This a Bullish Bounce or a Red Flag?

Bitcoin Climbs as U.S. Economic Data Fuels Fed Rate Cut Bets

Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $116,000 on Friday, up roughly 4% over the past week, as weak U.S. economic data heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. While favorable for crypto, the reports underline growing concerns about inflation and a cooling labor market.

August’s CPI exceeded forecasts slightly, signaling persistent price pressures. Job revisions showed nearly 1 million fewer positions created in the year ending March than previously reported, the largest downward adjustment in U.S. history. The August jobs report added just 22,000 positions, with unemployment at 4.3% and initial claims hitting 263,000—the highest since October 2021.

Risk assets responded strongly. Bitcoin formed higher lows from its September bottom near $107,500, with the 200-day moving average at $102,083. The S&P 500 closed at consecutive record highs, while the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipped below 4%.

Bitcoin-linked stocks were mixed: Strategy (MSTR) remained flat at $326, below its 200-day moving average, while MARA and XXI gained 7% and 4%, respectively.

CME FedWatch indicates a 25-basis-point cut is fully priced in for September, with three cuts expected by year-end—boosting risk appetite for crypto, equities, and other growth assets.