BNB breaks $800 as DOGE, ADA, and XRP see outflows; economists dial back July rate cut odds.

Crypto Market Struggles Below $4T as Fed Pressure and Altcoin Momentum Cool

The cryptocurrency market is again flirting with the $4 trillion valuation but remains unable to sustain a breakout, even amid strong risk-on sentiment across traditional markets and heightened institutional demand for Ethereum.

Total market capitalization stood at $3.93 trillion on Wednesday, marking the third attempt in four weeks to decisively clear the $4 trillion mark. Traders appear locked in a wait-and-see mode, rotating capital among major assets while seeking a catalyst to fuel a renewed uptrend.

“This feels like a repeat of late last month,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. “Flows tend to accelerate early in the month and fade as we approach month-end. At the moment, crypto is moving to its own technical rhythm, largely ignoring broader market optimism.”

Bitcoin Holds Steady, ETH Rally Pauses

Bitcoin (BTC) traded within a tight $117,000–$119,000 range over the past day and hovered around $118,500 in early U.S. hours. While BTC is still up 0.5% over the past week, volume and funding activity have slowed across platforms like CME and Coinbase, reflecting a moderation in bullish conviction.

Ethereum (ETH), which jumped 22% last week on ETF excitement and staking flows, has started to cool. At the time of writing, ETH was trading around $3,670, as momentum from the previous week’s breakout faded.

BNB Hits New Highs, Altcoins Stall

BNB surged past $800 on Wednesday, reaching new local highs, while ecosystem tokens like PancakeSwap (CAKE) and memecoin Floki (FLOKI) gained as much as 10%.

However, the broader altcoin market showed signs of exhaustion. Solana (SOL) is up 18.2% over the past seven days but dipped 1.3% in the last 24 hours. Cardano (ADA) and XRP, which gained 14.9% and 17.1% respectively last week, have flattened out. Even Dogecoin (DOGE), which spiked 27.1% on ETF speculation and news of a $500 million reserve build by Bit Origin, has begun to lose steam.

Despite this pause in momentum, overall sentiment remains highly optimistic. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 74, just shy of the “extreme greed” zone that historically signals market tops.

“The market is waiting for a fresh driver,” Kuptsikevich said. “That could come from staking-enabled ETF approvals or broader altcoin inclusion in institutional investment vehicles.”

Fed Policy in Focus as Rate Cut Hopes Dim

Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s July 30 meeting, where rate cut expectations have cooled. President Trump and several allies have called for monetary easing, but persistently high inflation and internal FOMC divisions have clouded the outlook.

While Chair Jerome Powell is expected to hold rates steady, a Reuters poll found that more than 70% of economists now worry about threats to Fed independence. Markets are currently pricing in a 53% probability of a rate cut in September.

With looming tariff deadlines on August 1, crypto traders are closely watching for any signs of dovish policy signals that could reignite momentum.