Bitwise Forecasts Bitcoin Breakout in 2026 as Institutions Take Notice
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expects bitcoin (BTC$88,100.66) to hit new all-time highs in 2026, as lower volatility and weaker correlations with equities reshape institutional demand.
Bitwise told clients to brace for a different bitcoin market next year, with the asset maturing as institutional participation grows. The firm highlighted that bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle is breaking down: halvings are becoming less influential, interest rates are expected to fall, and leverage has been curbed following major liquidations in late 2025.
“The forces that previously drove four-year cycles—the bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and leverage-fueled booms and busts—are significantly weaker than in past cycles,” Hougan wrote in a Monday blog post. Historically, halvings reduce miner rewards by 50%, slowing supply growth.
Hougan cited spot ETF inflows and broader access via major brokerages as factors that could push bitcoin to new highs rather than a typical post-halving downturn. He also noted that bitcoin has been less volatile than Nvidia (NVDA) in 2025, with price swings trending lower over the past decade as ETF ownership expands.
Looking forward, Hougan expects bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities to decline, with crypto-specific catalysts, regulation, adoption, and product innovation increasingly driving performance. Bitwise predicts these trends could make 2026 a breakout year for bitcoin as a portfolio asset, potentially attracting tens of billions in institutional capital.
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