Bitcoin’s Stability Questioned as Market Patterns Mirror Those That Preceded Trump Media’s Drop.

Bitcoin Rally Falters as Fed’s Hawkish Stance Fuels Market Jitters

Bitcoin’s (BTC) upward momentum appears to have paused, with the cryptocurrency struggling to sustain levels above $90,000. At the same time, market patterns in Deribit BTC options are echoing trends observed ahead of Trump Media shares’ recent slide, raising concerns of a potential pullback.

These market dynamics are highlighted by the implied probability distribution, which reflects traders’ expectations for future price movements based on options data. According to crypto analytics platform BloFin, a distinct “left shift” in this distribution now suggests a higher probability of BTC declining in price.

Griffin Ardern, head of options trading at BloFin, noted in a message to CoinDesk, “The implied probability distribution in BTC options is showing a noticeable leftward bias. This is similar to what we saw with DJT options before their significant price drop. The market seems to agree that current levels for BTC and many altcoins may not hold, and further corrections could be on the horizon.”

This observation aligns with the recent plunge in DJT shares, which halved to $27 after peaking at $54 in late October. The earlier rally was driven by market confidence in Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policy agenda following his November election win. While Trump’s victory briefly pushed BTC to a record $93,000, the cryptocurrency has since cooled, now trading at $88,100.

Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials are also tempering enthusiasm. On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled caution, stating, “The economy is not giving us reasons to rush into rate cuts,” dampening hopes for aggressive monetary easing. Since September, the Fed has implemented a 75 basis point rate reduction, which had previously buoyed risk assets.

Despite the recent dip, optimism among traders remains robust. Many continue to place bullish bets, with some speculating that BTC could still breach the $100,000 mark as market dynamics adjust to a potential Trump-led administration’s crypto-friendly policies.