Bitcoin’s Bounce Above 50-Day Moving Average Fails to Flip CoinDesk Trend Signal Bullish

Bitcoin Holds Above $115K as Bulls Eye Breakout, But Trend Still Bearish

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $115,000 late Monday after reclaiming its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) — a key milestone suggesting short-term momentum may be turning positive ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting.

The move above the 50-day SMA has been reinforced by improving technical signals. The MACD histogram on the daily chart has turned positive, confirming a bullish crossover, while the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have also aligned higher, marking growing upward pressure in the near term.

Traders attribute the latest rebound to expectations of a Fed rate cut on Wednesday and a constructive tone in U.S.–China trade discussions, both of which have revived appetite for risk assets after weeks of muted sentiment.

However, analysts caution that the broader picture remains mixed. The CoinDesk Bitcoin Trend Indicator (BTI) — which measures trend direction and strength — continues to signal a downtrend, underscoring lingering weakness in the larger market structure.

BTC also continues to trade below the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart, a technical resistance zone that has repeatedly capped upside attempts in recent months. A clear breakout above that level would confirm a shift toward bullish conditions, potentially paving the way for a move toward $120,000 and beyond.

For now, bitcoin’s rebound reflects early signs of recovery, but traders are waiting for the Fed’s decision to determine whether the move evolves into a sustained uptrend or stalls below resistance once again.