Bitcoin’s Range-Bound Market Masks $588B in On-Chain Shifts, Says 10x Research
Bitcoin has held above the $100,000 level since June, trading within a tight range that belies the heavy activity happening beneath the surface. According to a report by 10x Research, billions in BTC have changed hands during this period — a dynamic that could expose the market to renewed volatility.
The firm’s founder, Markus Thielen, said in a client note that nearly 5.9 million BTC — worth roughly $588 billion — have moved between $100,000 and $126,000 over recent months. That turnover surpasses Ethereum’s (ETH) total market capitalization of $428 billion, underscoring the scale of bitcoin’s underlying churn despite its seemingly static price action.
Institutional Pressure and Vulnerable Holders
Thielen warned that much of the bitcoin changing hands in this range now sits with investors less committed to long-term holding — including institutions subject to stricter risk management frameworks.
“Many of those coins are held on balance sheets that could become vulnerable, not due to conviction, but because institutional risk managers or bitcoin-skeptic executives may force those positions to close if prices fall further,” he said.
Roughly 347,000 BTC traded near the $101,000 mark, showing how concentrated recent activity has been around that key level.
Risk Below $100K
A sustained break below $100,000, Thielen said, could spark forced selling and trigger a sharp move toward $93,000, where the last major cluster of buying demand resides. “This is where the liquidity gap could emerge,” he cautioned.
The report also noted potential implications for the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs, which together hold about $60.5 billion in assets at an average acquisition price near $90,000. A deep price correction could place those inflows under scrutiny.
Calm Before the Next Wave
Despite appearing subdued, bitcoin’s market remains active beneath the surface — and the next directional move could prove decisive.
“The calm is misleading,” Thielen wrote. “There’s still significant volatility potential hidden within the market’s structure — it’s only a matter of what triggers it.”
As of publication, bitcoin was trading near $105,400, according to CoinDesk data.
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