Bitcoin’s $12 Billion Options Expiry Expected to Have Minimal Impact on Market, Says Deribit

Deribit: Bitcoin’s $12B Options Expiry Unlikely to Spark Significant Volatility

Key market indicators, including BTC’s implied volatility index and funding rates, suggest that the upcoming $12.13 billion Bitcoin (BTC) options expiry on Deribit is unlikely to cause major price swings.

On Friday, over 139,000 BTC option contracts—representing nearly 45% of all open BTC options—will settle. Despite the scale of the expiry, Deribit told CoinDesk that it does not expect significant market turbulence.

More than 65% of these contracts are call options, which allow traders to buy BTC at a predetermined price, while the remaining positions are in put options, offering downside protection. Typically, large expiries can drive volatility, but recent market trends indicate a more controlled outcome.

Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (DVOL) has steadily declined from 62% to 48% over the past few weeks, pointing to lower expected price fluctuations. Likewise, Deribit’s perpetual futures funding rate sits at an annualized 5%, signaling a stable trading environment.

“Despite the size of the expiry, the overall setup—low DVOL, moderate basis, and balanced options positioning—points to a relatively subdued expiry unless external catalysts emerge,” said Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers.

Traders Hedge for Short-Term Downside, But Long-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

Options skew data reveals that some traders are positioning for near-term downside protection, though the broader outlook remains optimistic.

“3-Day Put-Call Skew is slightly positive, indicating short-term hedging, while 30-Day Put-Call Skew is slightly negative, reflecting a more bullish sentiment over the medium term,” Strijers added.

Additionally, Ether (ETH) options worth $2.8 billion are also set to expire on Friday.