Bitcoin Volatility Tracks Wall Street: Record 90-Day Correlation Emerges Between BTC Index and S&P 500 VIX

Bitcoin Volatility Mirrors Wall Street as VIX Correlation Hits Record High

Bitcoin’s volatility is increasingly tracking traditional equity markets, with its implied volatility indices now closely aligned with Wall Street’s benchmark fear gauge, the VIX.

New data from TradingView shows the 90-day correlation between BTC’s 30-day implied volatility—measured by Volmex’s BVIV and Deribit’s DVOL—and the S&P 500’s VIX recently hit a record 0.88. Although it has since eased to 0.75, the figures highlight how Bitcoin’s volatility dynamics are becoming more influenced by broader macro sentiment.

The VIX reflects market expectations for price swings in the S&P 500, and typically moves inversely to risk-on market sentiment. Similarly, BTC volatility has dropped significantly this year, with BVIV falling from 67% to 42%, while Bitcoin’s price has climbed 26%. In comparison, the VIX is down 11% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has gained over 8%.

According to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen, the growing institutional footprint in crypto markets is compressing BTC volatility and fueling the correlation.

“This cycle is being shaped by Wall Street,” Thielen said. “Institutional players are favoring yield-generation strategies, like selling out-of-the-money call options, instead of directional bets.”

This trend mirrors strategies used in equities, where investors write options to earn additional yield. As more hedge funds and asset managers apply this approach to Bitcoin, it is beginning to behave more like a traditional financial asset.

“The same macro playbook is being used across asset classes,” Thielen added, pointing to rising cross-market correlations driven by institutional adoption.

In effect, Bitcoin’s volatility is no longer operating in a vacuum—it’s becoming increasingly sensitive to broader risk sentiment, echoing Wall Street’s rhythms more than ever before.