Bitcoin slipped overnight, dragging the broader crypto market lower as traders remained cautious amid few clear market catalysts. BTC traded at $88,248.23, down 1.5% from early Wednesday highs, while the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index fell 1.6%, with all constituent tokens in the red.
The decline extends a downtrend that began in early October, following bitcoin’s failure to break above $94,700 last week. For a rebound, BTC would need to reclaim $95,000 and ideally push toward $98,000, though year-end catalysts remain scarce. Technical indicators point to a potential short-term relief rally, with the average crypto relative strength index (RSI) at 38.49, signaling oversold conditions.
Derivatives and market positioning
BTC’s 30-day implied volatility (Volmex BVIV) remains below an annualized 50%, indicating calm ahead of Thursday’s U.S. inflation report and Friday’s Bank of Japan rate decision. Its 90-day historical volatility now aligns with major tech stocks like Tesla and Nvidia, reflecting market maturation.
Long positions on Bitfinex hit their highest levels since February, while futures open interest across most tokens—including BTC and ether (ETH $2,973.28)—declined over 24 hours. BCH, UNI, and NEAR saw moderate increases. On Deribit, put writing at $85,000 and call writing at $95,000–$100,000 suggests a broad near-term trading range. Block trades featured BTC straddles, risk reversals, and ETH call calendar spreads. Puts remain pricier than calls, reflecting continued downside concerns and call overwriting.
Altcoins
Altcoins underperformed against bitcoin, pushing BTC dominance to 58.7% from 57.8% on Nov. 26. ASTER and TAO led losses among top-100 tokens, down 6.5% and 6.1% since midnight UTC. ASTER’s decline extends a bearish trend exceeding 20% since Monday, amid waning BNB Chain derivatives hype.
Some bullish outliers included Monero (XMR $438.72), up 0.2%, and Cardano’s privacy token NIGHT, rising more than 5% in European morning trading. The “altcoin season” indicator remains at 19/100, highlighting the market’s continued focus on bitcoin since October’s liquidation-driven downturn.
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