Bitcoin Stagnates as Gold Extends Winning Streak to Six Weeks Ahead of Key Jobs Data

Bitcoin Stalls While Gold Rallies Ahead of Key U.S. Jobs Report

Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure, struggling to gain momentum amid declining on-chain activity, while gold continues its upward surge as investors brace for Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, which could shape the Federal Reserve’s next moves.

Bitcoin Faces Resistance at $100K

Despite recovering from an early-week dip, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain traction above the $100,000 level. Analysts at CryptoQuant suggest BTC may be overvalued at its current price of around $98,000, with its fair value estimated between $48,000 and $95,000.

On-chain activity further reflects this weakness. Bitcoin’s Network Activity Index has dropped 15% from its November peak, hitting 3,760 points—its lowest level in over a year. Daily transactions have also fallen sharply, down 53% from September’s record high of 734,000 to just 346,000.

Adding to investor uncertainty is the Trump administration’s slow progress in rolling out its proposed Bitcoin strategic reserve. Even a recent push from Eric Trump, encouraging BTC adoption through World Liberty Financial, failed to significantly impact price action.

Gold Shines as Safe-Haven Demand Grows

While Bitcoin struggles, gold has surged over 9% year-to-date, reaching a record high of $2,882 per ounce, according to TradingView. With a 2.32% gain this week alone, the precious metal is on pace for its sixth consecutive week of gains.

UBS analysts point to gold’s growing appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty, attracting investors who may be shifting away from Bitcoin amid its recent stagnation.

Market Awaits Key Jobs Data

Friday’s NFP report is expected to provide critical insights into the U.S. labor market, with economists forecasting job growth to slow to 170,000 from December’s 256,000. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings are anticipated to rise 0.3% month-on-month.

A weaker-than-expected jobs report could reinforce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially boosting risk assets like Bitcoin and equities. Lower Treasury yields, a focus of the Trump administration, could further support a risk-on market environment.

Conversely, stronger employment data—combined with trade policy uncertainties—could complicate the Fed’s rate path, increasing market caution and reinforcing gold’s dominance as the go-to safe-haven asset.