Bitcoin Poised for Breakout as Early Consensus Emerges on U.S.–China Trade Pact, Market Data Shows

A preliminary U.S.–China trade agreement could act as a fresh catalyst for Bitcoin (BTC), according to crypto derivatives platform Deribit, as the market attempts to recover from the mid-October slump.

Attention is centered on this week’s meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, where investors hope the two leaders will make progress on tariff negotiations. Earlier this month, Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports beginning Nov. 1, retaliating against Beijing’s tighter restrictions on rare-earth mineral exports — a move that rattled global markets.

Trump has since struck a more optimistic tone, expressing confidence that both sides can reach an agreement. That sentiment has improved risk appetite and lifted expectations that a breakthrough could help steady crypto prices.

Market data show traders beginning to unwind bearish positioning. According to Amberdata, the volatility premium on downside puts versus calls in Deribit’s BTC options has narrowed to 2–3%, down from roughly 5% after the Oct. 10 crash. The shift indicates waning demand for protective hedges as volatility subsides.

Even so, flows remain defensive overall, with traders maintaining put longs, put spreads, and call overwriting strategies — signs of lingering caution despite improving sentiment.

Bitcoin has rebounded to around $114,000, recovering from lows near $105,000 earlier this month after dropping from $126,000, according to CoinDesk data.

Deribit said a credible U.S.–China deal framework could spark renewed bullish momentum, helping Bitcoin break out of its consolidation phase if broader market conditions continue to stabilize.