Bitcoin Nears a Critical Capitulation Point Amid Severe Losses for Short-Term Holders

Bitcoin Signals Stress for Short-Term Holders as Long-Term Accumulation Continues

Bitcoin’s on-chain data is once again indicating significant stress among short-term holders, as the short-term holder (STH) MVRV ratio has dropped to 0.82—marking a level historically associated with market distress and potential capitulation, according to Glassnode’s latest data.

The STH MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s market price with the average cost basis of coins held by short-term holders. A value below 1.0 means that recent buyers are holding onto coins that are, on average, below their purchase price. At the current reading of 0.82, it suggests that short-term holders are facing a loss of approximately 18%, pointing to widespread unrealized losses.

This level is comparable to previous MVRV cycle lows: 0.84 in August 2024 and 0.77 in November 2022. Both instances preceded market bottoms, where price trends reversed and a new phase of accumulation began.

These deep MVRV pullbacks often mark turning points in the market, where weaker hands are forced to sell, allowing more experienced investors to accumulate assets at a discounted price. Glassnode data shows that long-term holders (those holding Bitcoin for 155 days or more) have added around 500,000 BTC to their supply since February.

Meanwhile, short-term holders have sold over 300,000 BTC, a mix of profit-taking and forced capitulation. This shift suggests that long-term holders are now in a position of strength, accumulating more Bitcoin than is being offloaded by short-term speculators.