Bitcoin Lags S&P 500 Once More, but History Favors a Catch-Up Move

Bitcoin Trails Gold and S&P 500, but History Suggests Rebound Ahead

Bitcoin has recently underperformed as gold and U.S. stocks continue to surge. Gold hit $3,800 per ounce on Tuesday, setting yet another record, while the S&P 500 remains just below 6,700, highlighting a divergence between the crypto market and traditional assets.

Despite hovering below $115,000, Bitcoin remains in a bullish trend, though its performance has periodically diverged from the S&P 500 during the current cycle:

• March–July 2024: S&P 500 climbed from 4,000 to 4,600, while Bitcoin fell from just under $30,000 to $25,000.
• April–October 2024: S&P 500 rose 5,200 to 6,000, but Bitcoin’s rally only resumed in November, coinciding with the presidential election.

Since May 2025, Bitcoin has consolidated between $110,000 and $120,000, even as the S&P 500 steadily advanced. BTC briefly hit new all-time highs in August before retreating to the lower end of its range.

Analysts note that such periods of divergence are often followed by Bitcoin catching up with broader markets. Historical trends suggest this could point to potential upside for Bitcoin relative to both gold and the S&P 500 in the near term.