Bitcoin Faces Resistance Near ATH, but On-Chain Realized Price Points to Continued Growth

While bitcoin’s recent pullback from its $109,000 high raised concerns among traders, on-chain data reveals a constructive shift beneath the surface. The key metric to watch: realized price, which offers a more reliable gauge of investor cost basis and broader market sentiment than price alone.

Realized Price: A Better Indicator of Market Health

The realized price, calculated as the average value at which BTC is withdrawn from exchanges, provides insight into where capital has entered the market. According to data, bitcoin’s 2025 realized price currently sits at $93,266, and with BTC trading around $105,000, this cohort is holding a +12% unrealized gain on average.

This follows a brief period earlier this year when BTC dropped below that level, historically a strong signal of capitulation.

Historical Context Reinforces the Signal

Periods where market price dips below the realized price often mark the exhaustion of selling and the beginning of a recovery:

• In 2024, bitcoin dropped below realized levels during the yen carry trade unwind but quickly rebounded.
• In 2023, realized price provided a floor during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.
• In 2018, BTC bottomed near $3,200—closely aligning with the network’s realized price at that time.

These historical parallels suggest the recent dip may have already served as a cyclical reset.

Beyond ATHs: Understanding Market Maturity

While all-time highs dominate headlines, they often distort investor perception. For example, the $20,000 high in 2017 came while the realized price lagged far behind at $5,149—highlighting a disconnect driven by speculative excess.

In contrast, today’s higher realized price reflects broad-based investor participation and a more mature capital structure. As the market grows, realized price serves as a rising foundational support that provides critical context during both uptrends and downturns.

Forward Outlook: Constructive Setup

The recent reclaim of the 2025 cohort’s cost basis points to renewed market strength. Historically, such recoveries have preceded multi-month rallies as confidence and capital return.

With long-term holders still in profit, and the aggregate cost basis trending higher, the setup for bitcoin heading into the second half of 2025 appears increasingly constructive—regardless of whether short-term price action remains volatile.