Bitcoin Eyes $120K, But These 3 Issues Could Hold It Back

Three Risks That Could Challenge Bitcoin’s Rally Toward $120K

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show strength following an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout, setting the stage for a potential move toward $120,000. Prices have crossed the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), while the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) hints at a bullish cross—signals that could attract momentum-driven traders.

Despite these technical indicators, there are three key risks that could temper Bitcoin’s rally.

1. Bull Fatigue Zone
BTC is nearing the resistance zone above $115,000. Since July, rallies above this level have repeatedly met strong selling pressure, evidenced by long upper wicks on recent monthly candles. While BTC briefly surpassed $124,000, prices quickly retraced below $115,000, signaling potential hesitation among buyers.

2. Dollar May Have Priced in Fed Rate Cuts
With the U.S. labor market weakening, futures traders have priced in 70 basis points of Fed rate cuts by year-end and 125 basis points by July 2026. Yet, the dollar index remains stable in the 97–98 range. If the dollar rebounds, it could limit gains for dollar-denominated assets such as Bitcoin. Technical indicators, including tight Bollinger Bands, suggest a potential sharp move in the dollar that may create headwinds for BTC.

3. Generational Bullish Momentum in 10-Year Yields
Expectations of falling yields usually encourage risk-taking, but long-term charts show a structural bullish trend in 10-year Treasury yields, suggesting limited downside. The alignment of the 50-, 100-, and 200-month moving averages signals higher yields ahead, potentially keeping fixed-income assets attractive and reducing capital inflows into Bitcoin. Two-year yields show similar patterns, reflecting sensitivity to interest rate expectations.

Bottom Line
While BTC exhibits bullish momentum, resistance near $115K, a potentially resilient dollar, and structurally higher long-term yields could all limit the rally toward $120,000. Investors should monitor these factors carefully as Bitcoin navigates its next move.