Bitcoin, Ether Prepare for $17 Billion Options Expiry with Fed Policy and Tech Earnings in Focus

$17B in Bitcoin, Ether Options Set to Expire as Traders Brace for Volatility Around Fed Decision

Bitcoin and Ether traders are preparing for heightened volatility this week, with more than $17 billion in options expiring Friday on Deribit, one of the largest monthly expirations of the year. The event coincides with the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and key U.S. tech earnings, adding to market uncertainty.

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $113,000 on Wednesday, close to its max pain level of $114,000 — the price point where the greatest number of options expire worthless. Analysts say spot prices often drift toward this zone ahead of expiry as market makers adjust hedges.

Data from Deribit show 72,716 BTC call contracts and 54,945 put contracts due for settlement, representing a $14.4 billion notional open interest. On the Ether (ETH) side, 375,225 calls and 262,850 puts are set to expire, totaling about $2.6 billion in notional value.

Out-of-the-money (OTM) options account for over 80% of open interest, underscoring speculative sentiment. Bitcoin calls cluster at $120,000–$130,000, while puts are concentrated at $100,000–$110,000 — showing a split between bullish optimism and defensive hedging.

For ether, the max pain level sits around $4,110, compared with its current price near $4,000, suggesting that traders expect tight consolidation unless macro catalysts force a breakout.

“Markets are clearly positioned for turbulence,” one derivatives analyst said. “Between the Fed decision and big tech earnings, volatility could spike as traders unwind or roll positions post-expiry.”

According to Checkonchain, Deribit’s dominance in bitcoin options has declined from nearly 80% before IBIT launched crypto options in late 2024 to about 44% today, now roughly equal to IBIT’s market share. The shift signals growing competition and deeper institutional involvement in crypto derivatives.

With the Fed’s rate call, earnings season, and options expiry all converging this week, traders are positioning cautiously — aware that once the $17 billion overhang clears, crypto markets could see a sharp directional move.