Bitcoin, Ether Markets See Heavy Action Amid Expectations That Tuesday’s U.S. Inflation Data Won’t Surprise

Crypto Traders Pour Into Bitcoin and Ether as Focus Shifts Away From Inflation Data

Traders across decentralized and centralized options markets are ramping up bets on bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH), signaling confidence that Tuesday’s U.S. inflation report won’t disrupt the crypto rally.

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, climbed past $121,000 during Monday’s Asian trading session, gaining 2.7% over 24 hours. So far in 2025, BTC is up nearly 30%, including a 13% rise this month, according to CoinDesk data.

Ether has kept pace, jumping 3% to around $3,050. Other major tokens—including XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), Binance Coin (BNB), and Solana (SOL)—posted gains between 3% and 5%.

On the decentralized platform Derive, traders are showing significant optimism, with a large chunk of open interest focused on bitcoin call options at a $130,000 strike price expiring on September 26.

“About 20% of Derive’s open interest for BTC’s September expiry is at the $130K call, pointing to expectations of a steady price climb in the months ahead,” said Nick Forster, founder of Derive.

For ether, around 45% of open interest for the July 18 expiry is locked in at the $3,400 strike, representing 16% of ETH’s weekend trading volume. “This reflects traders anticipating a breakout for ETH,” Forster added.

“While volatility isn’t as intense as it was in the 2020-2021 cycle, there’s a clear build-up of directional conviction, particularly for ETH. The next week will be crucial to confirm this trend,” he said.

Centralized exchange Deribit is showing a similar bullish tilt, with call options—bets on prices rising—trading at higher premiums than puts for both BTC and ETH across various maturities.

Inflation Data No Longer Center Stage for Crypto Markets

Tuesday’s release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key macro event of the week. FactSet forecasts June CPI to rise 0.23% month-on-month, translating to a 2.6% annual pace, up from 2.4% in May. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is expected to increase 3% year-on-year.

Although inflation prints have been critical signals for markets in recent years due to their influence on Federal Reserve policy, crypto traders appear less concerned this time.

According to the founders of the newsletter LondonCryptoClub, broader factors—like fiscal expansion, rising global liquidity, and a weaker dollar—are currently driving the crypto bull market rather than expectations of Fed rate cuts.

“We don’t think CPI has much relevance now,” they told CoinDesk. “The U.S. economy is slowing, but it’s not crashing, and inflation isn’t spiraling high enough to force the Fed back into rate hikes. Meanwhile, a weaker dollar and an expanding global money supply keep financial conditions easy.”

They also highlighted policy shifts under the Trump administration. “With the administration dropping deficit reduction, we’re seeing a return to the fiscal dominance approach from the Biden era.”

President Trump’s recently passed tax package is projected to add over $3 trillion to the national debt, further fueling loose financial conditions.

“At the moment, risk appetite and bitcoin prices are being driven more by fiscal dynamics and dollar weakness than by Fed policy,” they said. “As a result, crypto’s sensitivity to CPI data and Fed decisions is much lower.”

Crypto Week and Corporate Demand Strengthen Market Outlook

This week is also pivotal for the crypto space as the Trump administration has labeled it “Crypto Week.” The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to debate several significant bills, including the Genius Act, Clarity Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act.

Regulatory developments could help shield crypto markets from macro volatility.

“The bitcoin market is seeing strong momentum, fueled by corporate treasury allocations and speculative interest,” said Alexander Blume, CEO of SEC-registered investment adviser Two Prime, speaking with CoinDesk. “With this being dubbed ‘Crypto Week’ by the Trump administration, I anticipate more positive news.”

Blume also noted bitcoin’s growing independence from the broader economy. “Additionally, the perception that the Fed has become politicized is blunting the impact of inflation data on expectations for rate cuts,” he added.