Bitcoin Volatility Structure Shifts: MACD on Bollinger Spread Turns Positive
A key volatility model tied to Bitcoin’s long-term trend structure is flashing a fresh signal that could precede a breakout move.
The signal comes from the MACD applied to the Bollinger Band spread — a volatility metric measuring the distance between bands set two standard deviations from BTC’s 20-week simple moving average. The spread reflects market activity: wider bands indicate stronger volatility, while narrow bands suggest price compression.
As of this week, the MACD histogram for the Bollinger spread has crossed above zero, indicating a renewed expansion in volatility.
Historically, similar MACD crossovers — notably in Q4 2020 and late 2024 — have marked the early stages of major upward trends in BTC. While volatility itself is direction-neutral, these past crossovers have coincided with bullish market cycles.
Technical Layout:
- Upper pane: BTC weekly OHLC candlesticks
- Middle pane: Bollinger Band width
- Lower pane: MACD histogram of the spread (now positive)
This development suggests a volatility expansion phase may be underway, and if historical correlations hold, Bitcoin could be on the cusp of a new trend leg.
Traders are watching for confirmation — particularly a breakout above recent range highs — to validate the signal.
Share this content:
