Bitcoin Edges Closer to Historic High as Macro Conditions Improve

Bitcoin is on track for a strong July rally, supported by rising stock markets, increased money supply, and growing fiscal concerns.

Currently priced around $108,140, Bitcoin is nearing its all-time high, as favorable macroeconomic factors drive investors toward higher-risk assets.

Major U.S. stock indexes—the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones—are all close to record highs, reflecting a bullish market environment that often boosts interest in alternative investments like Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency is trading just below its May peak of roughly $109,000.

One major factor fueling this momentum is the U.S. M2 money supply, which has climbed to an unprecedented $21.9 trillion, hitting monthly highs for over a year. This abundance of liquidity is encouraging investors to seek assets that preserve value amid escalating government debt.

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has warned about fiscal risks related to the recently approved “Big Beautiful Bill,” which commits about $7 trillion annually in spending against $5 trillion in revenue, forecasting U.S. debt to rise from 100% to 130% of GDP over the next decade.

Dalio cautioned on X that without reducing budget deficits from around 7% to 3% of GDP through spending cuts, tax increases, and interest rate hikes, the U.S. economy could face serious challenges.

Historically, July tends to be a favorable month for Bitcoin, with average gains near 7%, indicating strong potential for new price highs in the near term.