Bitcoin Declines Following FOMC Rally as Traders Take Profits, Yet $100K Target Gains Momentum

Bitcoin Drops Below $84K After FOMC Rally, but $100K Target Gains Strength

Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market saw a 3% decline on Friday, as traders locked in profits following Thursday’s post-FOMC surge. Despite the pullback, analysts remain focused on $80,000 as a key support level, while options data suggests increasing confidence in a $100K BTC target.

Market Snapshot

• BTC fell from $86,000 to under $84,000, dragging total crypto market capitalization down by 3.2% in the last 24 hours.
• Ethereum (ETH) slipped below $2,000, and Solana (SOL) dropped 5%.
• XRP lost momentum after Wednesday’s 10% rally, trimming weekly gains to 4.8%.
• BNB outperformed, securing a weekly gain of over 8%.
• Tron (TRX) and Toncoin (TON) stood out as the only major gainers, each rising 2%.

The market saw renewed interest in TRX, which was floated on Solana for the first time, aiming to expand its user base. Meanwhile, TON gained traction following news that venture capital firms now hold over $400 million in Toncoin after a fresh round of investment.

FOMC Meeting Triggers Short-Lived Rally

Bitcoin briefly surged past $85,000 on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled plans to slow quantitative tightening starting in April—a move that traders interpreted as an indirect rate cut.

• QCP Capital noted that options traders have adjusted their strategies, anticipating a more accommodative Fed policy.
• Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, revealed that the probability of BTC surpassing $100K by June 30 has jumped from 20% to nearly 30% in just 24 hours.
• Meanwhile, ETH’s probability of holding above $2,000 by June 30 is now a 50-50 bet, up from 40% previously.

On Derive.xyz, 60% of ETH options traded in the last 24 hours were bullish calls, suggesting investors are positioning for a potential breakout, while 34% of BTC volume was focused on downside protection, indicating hedging strategies at play.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Crypto analyst Alex Kuptsikevich of FxPro cautioned that Bitcoin must hold $80,000 to maintain its bullish momentum.

• He noted that the overall crypto market has yet to break above its 200-day moving average, currently sitting at $2.9 trillion in total market cap.
• A sustained move above this level could trigger a fresh wave of buying, but bears may attempt to push prices lower, as seen in previous market cycles.

Bitcoin’s Path Forward

With profit-taking putting short-term pressure on BTC, the market’s next move hinges on whether Bitcoin can defend key support levels. Despite near-term volatility, growing options market activity suggests a rising probability of BTC hitting $100K in the coming months.