Bettors on Polymarket Are Certain Justin Trudeau Will Resign by Friday

Speculation over Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s potential resignation has reached new heights, fueled by conflicting reports from two of the country’s leading newspapers. While some insiders suggest his departure could happen as soon as Monday, bettors on Polymarket are more cautious about the timing.

Although Trudeau’s resignation has been a subject of discussion for a while, two prominent contracts with significant volumes are focused on whether he will step down by February or April, with an additional contract from December pondering if opposition parties will trigger an election by the spring.

The latest surge of interest came on Monday after the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail published reports stating that Trudeau could announce his resignation either on Monday or before Wednesday. The Toronto Star suggested that a resignation could come immediately, while the Globe and Mail, which initially reported the news, indicated it might happen before Wednesday’s Liberal Party caucus meeting.

Despite these reports, Polymarket bettors remain more uncertain about the immediate timeline. A contract that speculates Trudeau will resign by Monday has a volume of just over $45,000 but only places the likelihood at 24%. Another contract, predicting his resignation by Wednesday, gives it a 72% chance, although it has a smaller volume of approximately $10,000. A third contract, focused on Friday, puts the probability of him stepping down by then at 80%.

Although the Toronto Star and Globe and Mail are confident in their sources suggesting Trudeau’s resignation is imminent, Reuters, citing a different source, claims that Trudeau has not yet made a decision.

Public sentiment reflects a challenging outlook for Trudeau, with a 22% approval rating according to Angus Reid polling. If an election were held today, polling aggregators indicate that Trudeau’s Liberal Party would be severely weakened, winning only 46 seats, while the Conservatives would dominate with 225, securing a majority in Canada’s Parliament.

In a lighter vein, another contract on Polymarket is giving a 3% chance that Canada will become the 51st state of the U.S. by July — a concept that originated as a tongue-in-cheek idea shared by President-elect Donald Trump on social media.