Asia Morning Briefing: CZ’s Pardon Shifts Market Mood, Raising Prospects for SBF’s Comeback

Asia Morning Briefing: SBF Pardon Bets Spike After Trump Clears CZ’s Record

Speculation over a possible pardon for FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is heating up after former President Donald Trump granted clemency to Binance’s Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, expunging his criminal record.

Prediction Markets Shift

Traders on prediction platforms were quick to react. On Polymarket, odds of Bankman-Fried receiving a presidential pardon jumped five points to 12%, while Kalshi saw an even steeper climb — up nine points to 16% — following Thursday’s announcement in the U.S.

Though the probabilities remain low, the surge reflects a renewed sense that SBF could benefit from the same wave of leniency that wiped CZ’s slate clean.

Earlier this year, Bankman-Fried embarked on a media rehabilitation push, appearing on Tucker Carlson’s podcast and amplifying claims that his prosecution was politically motivated. His parents, meanwhile, have quietly sought connections within Trump’s network, advocating for relief from his 25-year prison term.

Surprise Move, Cautious Markets

Trump’s pardon of CZ caught traders off guard. For months, odds of a potential SBF pardon hovered between 20% and 40%, suggesting widespread skepticism that any political mercy was on the table.

Prediction markets are generally reliable, but they can miss left-field outcomes — and a sudden Bankman-Fried pardon would certainly qualify. It’s the kind of ending that might seem too implausible even for The Altruists, Netflix’s upcoming dramatization of FTX’s collapse — until reality outpaces fiction.

Market Snapshot

Bitcoin (BTC): Rose 2.7% to around $110,700 on Thursday, recovering from midweek losses as traders positioned ahead of the U.S. inflation report due Friday.

Ether (ETH): Held near $3,850, with analysts noting signs of a Wyckoff re-accumulation pattern. Institutional flows are strengthening, driving speculation of an eventual $8,000–$10,000 rally later in the cycle.

Gold: Traded near $4,126, up nearly 50% this year after setting a record above $4,000. Persistent geopolitical risks, central bank buying, and Fed policy uncertainty continue to support prices. Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 forecast to $4,400, while warning that lofty levels could dampen jewelry and reserve demand.

Nikkei 225: Gained 0.78% on Friday, leading Asia-Pacific equities higher after confirmation of upcoming Trump–Xi talks next week.