Asia Crypto Brief: Bitcoin Faces Fed Cuts and $4.5B Liquidity Hurdles

Crypto Markets Brace for Fed Cuts Amid Token Unlocks and Liquidity Tests – 17/9/2025

Markets are gearing up for the start of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, with a 25-basis-point rate cut widely expected tomorrow. But according to OKX Singapore CEO Gracie Lin, token unlocks and liquidity shocks will put crypto markets to the test, with resilient liquidity determining winners and losers.

Polymarket and CME FedWatch both point to a 25 bps cut at the next FOMC meeting, while probabilities are building for three additional cuts through year-end. Polymarket traders anticipate more aggressive easing, whereas CME shows steadier 25 bps steps, leaving a total of roughly 75 bps in cuts as the market baseline for 2025.

On-Chain Signals Show Strong Conviction
Crypto markets are already reflecting expectations of the Fed pivot. BTC trades at $116,762, up 1.3% on the day and 4.7% on the week, while ETH sits at $4,502, up 4.3% weekly. Some traders remain on the sidelines, awaiting Fed guidance before committing.

Exchange Flows Highlight Reduced Sell Pressure
Bitcoin exchange inflows have fallen to a seven-day average of just 25,000 BTC—the lowest in more than 18 months. Average BTC deposit sizes have halved to 0.57 BTC, suggesting major holders are staying put rather than selling.

Ethereum shows a similar trend, with inflows dropping to a two-month low of 783,000 ETH from 1.8 million in August. Average deposit sizes have declined from 40–45 ETH to 30 ETH, indicating subdued sell-side activity.

Meanwhile, stablecoins are flowing into exchanges. USDT deposits spiked to $379 million at the end of August and remain elevated at $200 million, giving exchanges liquidity to support a post-Fed rally.

Altcoins See Increased Activity
Higher-beta altcoins are seeing renewed exchange activity, with seven-day transaction deposits rising to 55,000 from a previous range of 20,000–30,000. This suggests profit-taking in altcoins even as BTC and ETH supply remains tight.

Token Unlocks Could Challenge Liquidity
September brings $4.5 billion in token unlocks, which could test market absorption, Lin notes. She emphasizes that opportunity lies beyond short-term volatility:

“Stablecoins near $300 billion in supply, token unlocks are testing market depth, and major infrastructure upgrades like Nasdaq’s move toward tokenized securities show that crypto is integrating into the global financial system, not remaining an outlier.”

The message is clear: the Fed pivot is largely priced in. The next test will be whether crypto’s liquidity buffers, stablecoins, and exchange flows can absorb shocks and fuel the next leg higher for BTC.

Market Snapshot

• BTC: Trading above $116,500, buoyed by rate-cut optimism and technical factors like closed futures gaps, with some caution ahead of the Fed meeting.
• ETH: Showing modest gains, supported by BTC-driven momentum but facing resistance as investors weigh macro risks.
• Gold: Hits record highs amid rate-cut expectations, a weaker U.S. dollar, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, reinforcing its safe-haven status.