As BTC ETFs Lose $420M, Traders Don’t Anticipate Any Bitcoin Breakouts Before New Year’s Eve.

The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), an index that tracks the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding stablecoins, fell by 2.7% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to experience bearish pressure late Monday, briefly dipping below $92,000 as profit-taking set in, despite a massive Bitcoin purchase by MicroStrategy. By Tuesday morning in Asia, Bitcoin had recovered slightly to just above $92,800.

Many traders expect this range-bound trading to persist until February, following the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose policies may have an impact on the market.

“We are not expecting significant price movements at the start of the year, especially with strong funding conditions,” said traders at Singapore-based QCP Capital in a Telegram update. “January’s typical returns (+3.3%) are similar to those of December (+4.8%), so we foresee prices remaining within this range for now, with the potential for a pickup starting in February.”

The options market reflects this cautious sentiment, with volatility at the front end declining and call options for March (betting on a price increase) seeing increased demand. This shift, partly driven by the purchase of significant March call options last Friday between $120k-$130k, shows growing optimism for a potential price rally in March.

Bitcoin is poised to end December down by 4%, marking its worst performance since 2021, as both retail investors and long-term holders have taken profits following an impressive 117% surge this year. Additionally, the U.S. Chicago PMI data indicating an economic slowdown is contributing to market pressure, as Bitcoin often correlates with broader economic trends.

MicroStrategy, a prominent Bitcoin development company, made its final purchase of the year on Dec. 29, acquiring 2,138 BTC for $209 million. This brings its total Bitcoin holdings to 446,400 BTC, marking the eighth consecutive week of purchases.

However, the announcement did little to stop the downward trend. Bitcoin prices continued to drop following the news, while shares of MicroStrategy fell 8%, hitting their lowest point since early November.

The bearish momentum extended to other major cryptocurrencies, with Ether (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) all dropping as much as 3% before recovering. BNB Chain’s BNB remained relatively unchanged, while memecoins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) fell by 5%.

The CoinDesk 20 index lost 2.7% in the past 24 hours, reflecting the overall decline in the market.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw significant outflows, with a total of $420 million leaving these products on the second-to-last day of trading before the new year. Fidelity’s FBTC saw the largest outflow, losing $154 million, followed by Grayscale’s GBTC at $130 million and BlackRock’s IBIT at $36 million.

These ETFs have experienced more than $1.5 billion in net outflows since Dec. 19, reversing a strong inflow trend earlier in the month, which saw nearly $2 billion in net inflows. Large outflows often signal a shift in investor sentiment, suggesting a more cautious or bearish outlook on Bitcoin’s short-term performance.