Crypto Markets Consolidate as Bitcoin Faces Critical Levels
Major cryptocurrencies—including Bitcoin (BTC $92,686.72), Ether (ETH $3,084.29), XRP ($2.2571), and Solana (SOL $143.04)—held steady over the past 24 hours following a volatile week that sent prices to multi-month lows.
Sentiment remains firmly in “extreme fear,” with the Fear and Greed Index at 12/100. Historically, readings below 20/100 often precede a market rebound, though risk remains elevated.
Altcoins continue to underperform due to thin liquidity and weak demand for speculative assets. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) has fallen 30% over the past month, lagging behind the CoinDesk 5 (CD5), which is down 23%.
Bitcoin is at a pivotal point: a rejection near $95,000 could confirm a fourth lower high and continuation of the downtrend. A recovery above $90,000 could restore confidence, while a drop toward $81,000 may trigger panic selling, disproportionately impacting altcoins.
Derivatives & Volatility
- BVIV Volatility: Volmex’s 30-day options implied volatility rebounded to 60% from 57.55%, tracking renewed downside pressure.
- Options Flows: Rising demand for BTC puts on Deribit, paired with reduced call overwriting, pushed volatility higher. The $80,000 put now has over $2 billion in open interest. BTC and ETH call-put skews remain defensive.
- Block Trades: Spot strategies like BTC call condors and put calendar spreads dominated flows.
- Futures: XRP, DOGE, and HYPE saw rising open interest; BCH fell 5%.
Altcoin Market Overview
By Oliver Knight
Altcoins struggled against BTC due to liquidity constraints. Market depth is low for TON ($1.6367) and DOT ($2.3597), meaning modest trades can shift prices by 2% or more. Smaller altcoins are even more sensitive, amplifying volatility during liquidations.
CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season indicator dropped to 23/100, indicating a preference for BTC or stablecoins over speculative altcoins. Technically, markets are in a neutral zone, with neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Bitcoin reclaiming $90,000 is key; failure could spark another wave of selling, especially for illiquid altcoins.
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