XRP Oversold, Needs $1.96 Break to Reverse Downtrend
Market Overview
XRP came under heavy pressure after whale wallets dumped nearly 200 million tokens (~$400M) over 48 hours, creating significant supply stress. Weakness in Bitcoin below $90,000 intensified market-wide risk-off, dragging altcoins, including XRP, into deeper volatility.
Institutional interest remains notable. Bitwise’s new XRP ETF posted $25.7M in first-day volume and holds $107.6M in AUM, signaling sustained demand. However, overall crypto sentiment remains fragile amid ongoing outflows.
Price Action Summary
- XRP dropped from $1.96 to $1.91, marking its lowest close in three sessions.
- Trading volume surged 67% above average to 182.1M, confirming institutional selling.
- The session formed a descending channel, with 5.1% intraday volatility.
- A capitulation low at $1.895 triggered a modest 0.5% late-session rebound.
- Final-hour volume spiked to 2.76M, suggesting early accumulation and breaking the prior declining trend in participation.
Technical Analysis
XRP’s decline was driven by distribution from whales, overwhelming the $1.96 resistance and forcing the token into a persistent descending channel. Support near $1.90–$1.91 acted as a key battleground. Institutional buying after the $1.895 capitulation sparked a minor reversal.
Momentum indicators, including RSI and short-term stochastic, show deep oversold conditions, forming the first bullish divergence since last week’s breakdown. The late-session volume surge signals early accumulation, but the overall structure remains fragile.
A break above $1.96 is required to invalidate the descending channel and attempt a trend reversal. If $1.90 fails to hold, XRP could quickly test $1.82, followed by $1.73.
Key Levels and Considerations
- $1.90: Critical support; a break could target October’s deep liquidity zones.
- $1.96: Key resistance; reclaiming it is necessary for short-term bullish momentum.
- ETF flows: Bitwise’s AUM growth may act as an upside catalyst if volume accelerates.
- Momentum: Oversold conditions favor near-term bounces, but whale selling remains the main risk.
- Market sentiment: Elevated fear ensures XRP will continue to react sharply to Bitcoin volatility.
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