After Powell Casts Doubt on December Cut, Bitcoin Technicals Hint at Key Levels Ahead

Bitcoin Struggles for Direction as Powell’s Hawkish Tone Rattles Markets

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks, which cast uncertainty over a potential December rate cut. Despite renewed selling pressure, the leading cryptocurrency continues to find buyers near key support levels.

After falling toward $109,250, BTC quickly rebounded to around $111,000 — hovering just above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a critical long-term support that often defines bullish or bearish market phases.

While holding above that level suggests resilience, analysts caution that bitcoin remains technically fragile. Prices are still trading beneath the Ichimoku cloud, a widely watched indicator for short-term trend direction. Continued weakness below the cloud could eventually trigger a breakdown under the 200-day SMA and potentially expose the $100,000 support zone.

A similar setup earlier this year led to a deeper correction, when BTC dropped from $110,000 to $75,000 after failing to reclaim the cloud structure.

Broader market conditions also appear unfavorable for risk assets. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is strengthening following a bullish crossover between its 50- and 100-day moving averages, while the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 4%, reflecting persistent upward pressure on interest rates.

Data from Amberdata show that BTC puts on Deribit are trading at a 4%–5% volatility premium to calls, signaling that traders are increasingly hedging against downside moves.

For bullish sentiment to return, analysts say BTC needs a decisive breakout above $116,000 — the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. Until then, the crypto market is expected to remain volatile, with sentiment dictated by shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy and macroeconomic signals.