After a Red October, Can Bitcoin Bounce Back in November?

Bitcoin’s ‘Moonvember’ Reputation Doesn’t Match the Data

November 3, 2025

For years, November has carried a near-mythical status in the Bitcoin community — dubbed “Moonvember” for its supposed track record of explosive gains. But a closer look at the numbers shows that the month’s bullish reputation is more myth than rule.

From 2013 to 2025, Bitcoin’s average November gain comes in at around 42.5%, according to data from CoinGlass’s Bitcoin Monthly Returns chart — the strongest among all months on record. However, that figure is heavily skewed by 2013, when Bitcoin surged more than 449% during its early bull cycle.

When that extraordinary year is removed, the median November return falls sharply to just 8.8%, suggesting that typical monthly performance is far more modest than the headline number implies.

Historical results paint a mixed picture: Bitcoin logged deep losses in 2018 (-36.6%), 2019 (-17.3%), 2021 (-7.1%), and 2022 (-16.2%), while enjoying strong rallies in 2020 (+43%) and 2024 (+37.3%). This year’s 0.5% gain highlights that “Moonvember” doesn’t always deliver fireworks.

Analysts say that while seasonality trends like November’s bullish lore make for catchy narratives, they don’t substitute for price confirmation. Traders typically rely on technical signals — such as volume surges, resistance breaks, and improving market breadth — rather than the calendar when assessing Bitcoin’s next move.