ADA, Dogecoin Outperform as Crypto Market Anticipates Federal Reserve Update

Bitcoin surged toward the $100,000 threshold on Thursday as markets responded to two catalysts: growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and fresh trade deal buzz from former President Donald Trump.

DOGE and Cardano’s ADA led the charge among altcoins, gaining 5% and 4%, respectively. Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and BNB followed with 2%–3% increases, lifting the CoinDesk 20 Index 2.2% on the day.

The momentum was ignited late Wednesday when Trump announced he would unveil a “big” trade agreement at a Thursday morning press conference. Though he left the partner unnamed, multiple reports confirmed it’s the United Kingdom. Trump hinted that this would be the first of “many” deals to come—signaling a possible end to months of market-rattling tariff uncertainty.

The timing of the announcement, coming just hours after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, added fuel to risk sentiment. Investors are increasingly betting that the central bank will begin easing in the second half of the year, with July now seen as the potential kickoff.

Market pricing currently reflects an expected 100 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s a 55% probability that the Fed’s target range drops to 4.00%–4.25% as soon as July.

“Bitcoin’s rebound is being powered by two narratives—relief from monetary tightening and geopolitical resolution,” said Semir Gabeljic, head of Pythagoras Investments. “But underneath it all is growing uncertainty, and that’s where Bitcoin thrives.”

Others point to deeper structural risks. Gabe Selby, research chief at CF Benchmarks, warned that the Fed could be misreading inflation trends and labor market stress, which together may push the U.S. into a stagflationary spiral—an outcome that complicates policy decisions and pressures all risk assets.

“With rising tariffs feeding into consumer prices and signs of a cooling job market, the Fed is in a tightening bind,” Selby told CoinDesk. “There’s a real risk they act too late.”

Still, in the world of crypto, that macro volatility may be a feature, not a bug.

Investors have poured billions into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs in recent weeks, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone drawing $4.3 billion in new inflows over the past month. Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against monetary instability is gaining traction fast.

“Bitcoin isn’t just rallying—it’s repositioning,” said Jupiter Zheng of HashKey Capital. “It’s becoming the core asset in a new kind of portfolio—one built for a world where the old rules are breaking down.”