SEC Likely to Approve Spot ETFs for XRP, SOL & DOGE—Bloomberg Analysts Predict High 90s Probability

Approval prospects are looking bright for nearly all spot crypto ETF applications before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with SUI standing out as the only major exception.

Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas report that the SEC appears increasingly open to approving spot crypto exchange-traded funds tied to assets such as XRP, Solana, Litecoin, Dogecoin, and Cardano.

“We are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher,” Seyffart wrote in a post on X. “Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion.”

Analysts point to a recent uptick in regulatory communication, including 19b-4 acknowledgments and S-1 amendment requests, as evidence that the SEC is collaborating with fund issuers and moving closer to approvals.

While optimism surrounds most filings, SUI, submitted solely by Canary, remains an outlier. Bloomberg assigns it only a 60% chance of approval, citing uncertainty around regulated futures and broader regulatory clarity.

Meanwhile, crypto prediction markets echo the bullish outlook for other assets. On Polymarket, traders are placing a 98% probability on the approval of an XRP ETF this year. The odds for a Solana ETF stand at 91%, while a Dogecoin ETF has a 71% likelihood of being approved.

Taken together, both analysts and traders signal growing confidence that a new wave of spot crypto ETFs could soon enter the U.S. market — with SUI as the primary asset still facing significant hurdles.