BTC Trades Sideways Above $104K Ahead of Seasonally Bullish Second Half

Crypto Markets Quiet Ahead of Potential Breakout, Analysts Eye Strong H2 for Bitcoin

Crypto markets drifted lower on Thursday, caught between cautious macroeconomic signals, geopolitical tensions, and thinning volatility. Bitcoin was last seen near $104,700 in Asian trading hours, down 1.2% over the past day, while ether slipped 1.8% to trade just under $2,860.

The subdued trading follows the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday to leave interest rates unchanged, while reiterating a cautious approach amid persistent inflation concerns.

Typical Seasonal Slowdown

Crypto markets often enter a lull during June and July, and this year appears no different. According to Singapore-based QCP Capital, bitcoin’s front-end implied volatility has dropped below 40%, wiping out much of the risk premium driven by recent geopolitical turmoil.

Data shows open interest in BTC and ETH perpetual futures has remained flat, while options markets reveal puts trading at a premium to calls—a sign traders are bracing for potential downside moves.

Despite the quiet price action, some see technical signals pointing toward further gains. “There’s been no change to the technical picture, which remains supportive of another push to the topside,” said Joel Kruger, strategist at LMAX Group, in a note to CoinDesk. “BTC continues to consolidate bullishly, and a move through recent highs could set up a run toward $145,000.”

Ether, though still below its 2021 peak, is starting to gain traction, Kruger added. “Clearing $2,900 could bring $3,400 into play.”

Regulatory Progress Encourages Optimism

One positive development for crypto this week was the U.S. Senate’s passage of a stablecoin regulatory framework, signaling a potentially friendlier environment for digital assets in the future. “Globally, we’re seeing continued progress that promises greater clarity and a more welcoming environment for institutional crypto adoption,” Kruger noted.

Short-Term Range, Long-Term Hope

In the immediate term, month-end options expiry, systematic fund rebalancing, and a lack of fresh catalysts may keep bitcoin locked in its $102,000 to $108,000 range.

However, analysts are increasingly looking toward the second half of the year, which has historically been strong for crypto markets. “The worst may be behind us,” Kruger said. “And the next leg up could catch many off guard.”