Record Outflows in Spot Bitcoin ETFs Mirror Weak Demand Indicated by CME Futures Premium.

The U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded historic outflows on Thursday, with investors pulling a net $671.9 million—the largest single-day withdrawal since their launch on January 11, according to data from Coinglass and Farside Investors. The selloff came as Bitcoin extended its post-Federal Reserve losses, dropping below $100,000.

Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC led the withdrawals, losing $208.5 million and $188.6 million, respectively. Other funds also saw significant outflows, while BlackRock’s IBIT experienced its first zero inflow day in weeks.

Bitcoin’s price fell to $96,000 on Thursday, marking a nearly 10% decline from its record high of $108,268 earlier in the week. The bearish sentiment extended into the derivatives market, where the annualized premium on CME’s regulated one-month Bitcoin futures dropped to 9.83%—the lowest level in over a month, according to Amberdata.

This decline in futures premium suggests reduced profitability for cash-and-carry arbitrage strategies, which rely on long ETF positions and short CME futures positions. As a result, ETFs may continue to experience muted demand in the near term.

Additionally, Ether (ETH) ETFs registered a net outflow of $60.5 million, the first since November 21. Ether prices have fallen by 20% from levels above $4,100 before Wednesday’s Fed decision, reflecting broader weakness in the crypto market.

Another example of market behavior influenced by external economic events is the ‘Halving Effect’ seen in Bitcoin markets. Historically, Bitcoin halving events—which reduce the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions—have led to significant price rallies in the months following the event. However, in the short term, these events often create volatility and uncertainty as market participants adjust to reduced supply dynamics.