It’s not the rate hike or cut that’s on Bitcoin traders’ minds; they’re zeroing in on another critical Fed indicator.

Fed Dot Plot Takes Center Stage for Crypto Traders

The Federal Reserve is poised to keep interest rates steady this week, but crypto markets are fixated on what comes after.

The FOMC’s rate decision is scheduled for 18:00 UTC on Wednesday, with Chairman Jerome Powell speaking shortly after. While President Donald Trump has publicly urged rate cuts, the Fed is widely expected to maintain its current policy stance at 4.25%-4.50%.

Instead, traders are laser-focused on the dot plot—a tool mapping each official’s forecast for future rates.

“The outcome on rates is no surprise,” said XBTO in a market update. “It’s the dot plot that matters. Less than two cuts forecast would confirm a hawkish path, keeping the dollar strong and crypto hesitant. But any dovish signals could unlock fresh momentum for digital assets.”

Bitcoin’s recent rally has stalled above $100,000 amid Middle East turmoil and inflation concerns.

“Expectations for 2025 rate cuts have collapsed from 100 basis points to just 50,” noted Matteo Greco of Fineqia. “Persistent inflation and geopolitical risk might reduce those expectations even further.”

Though a hawkish Fed could pressure bitcoin and altcoins short-term, higher U.S. debt costs may ultimately bolster the appeal of bitcoin and gold as alternative stores of value.