Bitcoin Long Leverage at Bitfinex Weakens Sharply, Echoing Levels Last Seen in December — Bullish Setup Ahead?

Bitcoin’s leveraged long positions on Bitfinex have quietly dropped to 47,691 — a level not seen since December 2024 — and some analysts say that’s exactly the kind of setup that historically precedes a major price breakout.

Despite Bitcoin hovering near all-time highs after its rally above $110,000, trader conviction on Bitfinex appears to be fading. But far from being a bearish signal, this drop in longs may actually hint at underlying strength.

“Bitcoin tends to move against the majority,” said João Wedson, founder of Alphractal. “When leverage pulls back this aggressively, it usually clears the path for spot-driven upside.”

That thesis has played out before. Similar patterns of declining Bitfinex long exposure were seen ahead of Bitcoin’s Q4 2023 breakout and the early 2025 surge that lifted prices from $75K to above $110K. In contrast, spikes in long positioning have often coincided with local tops and painful corrections.

The logic is simple: as over-leveraged traders exit the market, downside liquidation risk shrinks — and with less forced selling, Bitcoin becomes more responsive to organic buy pressure.

Alphractal’s recent post on X put it bluntly: “Smart money buys when Bitfinex longs fall off a cliff.”

If history rhymes, this latest dip in long positioning could be the final shakeout before Bitcoin attempts its next major leg upward.