MSTR Underperforms Bitcoin; 10X Research Sees Potential in Bearish Positioning

Despite Bitcoin surging past $110,000, MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) stock price has stalled, signaling a possible shift in investor sentiment. The Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin holder’s shares closed Friday at $369, down 7%, while Bitcoin hit fresh all-time highs.

Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, highlighted this divergence and suggested a bearish options strategy: a bear put spread involving the $370 long put and $300 short put expiring June 27. The position costs $13.89, offering limited risk with profit if MSTR falls below $300.

“MSTR’s lagging performance amid Bitcoin’s rally signals waning enthusiasm from institutional investors,” Thielen said. “This trade capitalizes on the growing disconnect and serves as a hedge for long Bitcoin positions.”

MicroStrategy holds over 576,000 BTC, the largest corporate stash, accumulated since 2020 mainly via debt financing. The stock’s recent weakness contrasts with Bitcoin’s continued strength, reminiscent of the pattern before Bitcoin’s 2021 peak.

While this divergence does not confirm an end to Bitcoin’s bull run, it underscores caution among traditional finance investors and highlights the importance of strategic hedging.