Bitcoin to Reach $1 Million by 2028, Says Arthur Hayes, Citing Weak U.S.-China Deal

Arthur Hayes wants crypto investors to stop obsessing over Jerome Powell. The former BitMEX CEO says the real power shaping global markets—and Bitcoin’s future—is coming from somewhere else entirely: the U.S. Treasury.

“In 2022, Powell didn’t matter under the Democrats. He still doesn’t matter now with the Republicans,” Hayes told CoinDesk. “The Fed is noise. The Treasury is the signal.”

Hayes points to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s stealthy maneuvers—debt buybacks, auction engineering, and fiscal sleight of hand—as the true engine behind the dollar’s global supply surge. As the U.S. continues to spend beyond its means, Bessent’s liquidity injections are keeping the financial system afloat. That, Hayes argues, is the real reason Bitcoin is poised to hit $1 million by 2028.

“What matters is simple: Are there more dollars floating around today than yesterday?” Hayes said. “That’s it. That’s the entire game.”

The U.S.-China Trade Act: All Theater, No Substance

Geopolitics, too, are part of Hayes’ macro view. As Washington and Beijing edge toward a new trade pact, Hayes sees more performance than policy.

“It’s just a deal on the surface,” he said. “Trump needs to look tough. Xi needs to save face. That’s all this is.”

With tariffs no longer politically viable, Hayes expects the U.S. to lean into quiet capital controls, such as taxing foreign holdings in American debt or equities, to keep the public unaware while nudging the financial system into a new balance.

“The real adjustment will happen under the radar,” he said. “Not through consumer pain, but by choking off foreign capital flows in a way that doesn’t scare voters.”

He even floated the possibility of radical measures—bond maturity swaps, 100-year paper, or aggressive withholding taxes on U.S. capital gains—as levers to do just that.

Americans Don’t Want Sacrifice. Policy Will Work Around That.

For Hayes, the problem is cultural as much as fiscal.

“Americans don’t like to do hard things,” he said. “No one wants to hear they should consume less.”

So the government, he argues, will engineer financial shifts that don’t require sacrifice—at least not in ways voters can easily see.

China Still Needs the Dollar

Despite tensions, Hayes doesn’t expect Beijing to stop buying U.S. assets. It can’t.

“They have to pretend they’re not doing it, but they can’t actually stop,” he said. “The math doesn’t work otherwise.”

Crypto Thesis: Quality Will Survive the Flood

All of this spells a tsunami of global liquidity—and in Hayes’ eyes, Bitcoin is perfectly positioned to benefit.

His portfolio reflects this confidence: 60-65% in BTC, 20% in ETH, and the rest in what he calls “quality shitcoins”—crypto projects with real utility.

“We’re in a season where fundamentals matter,” Hayes said. “People are done with empty hype. They want coins that actually do something.”