Despite a trading lull, Robinhood’s earnings surprise could signal positive prospects for Coinbase.

Robinhood’s Earnings Surprise Amid Trading Slowdown Could Benefit Coinbase

Robinhood (HOOD) surprised analysts with stronger-than-expected earnings in the first quarter of 2025, despite a noticeable decline in overall trading activity. The company posted adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.37, surpassing the forecast of $0.33, with total revenue reaching $927 million—beating the estimated $920.1 million.

Crypto revenue for the quarter was particularly strong, seeing a year-over-year increase of 100%, totaling $252 million. However, Robinhood’s transaction-based revenue, primarily from traditional equity and options trading, fell by 13%, dropping from $672 million in Q4 to $583 million.

The earnings report comes after a record-breaking Q4, driven by a surge in crypto trading volumes that benefitted from excitement surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s election win. However, the momentum from that period quickly waned after the inauguration, resulting in a slowdown across both crypto and traditional markets.

Additionally, Robinhood announced it is increasing its share repurchase program by $500 million, bringing the total to $1.5 billion. To date, $667 million of shares have been repurchased, leaving $833 million remaining under the buyback authorization.

Given the close correlation between Robinhood’s crypto trading volumes and Coinbase’s (COIN) performance, investors are closely watching Coinbase’s upcoming earnings report. Analysts are particularly interested in how Coinbase’s retail trading volumes were affected in the first quarter.

Coinbase is set to report its Q1 results on May 8, with analysts predicting a slight revenue drop to $2.1 billion from $2.27 billion in Q4, driven by a decline in exchange volumes, which are expected to fall from $439 billion to $403.8 billion.

Despite Robinhood’s mixed performance, the earnings surprise and strength in its crypto segment could have a positive effect on Coinbase’s outlook as the broader market remains cautious.