Tariff Tensions Weigh on Coinbase’s Revenue and Trading Outlook, According to Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer Analyst Predicts Retail Slowdown and Tariff Concerns Will Pressure Coinbase’s Revenue Through 2025

Coinbase (COIN) is grappling with a weaker outlook, as ongoing tariff uncertainties from President Donald Trump’s fluctuating trade policies weigh on retail crypto activity, analysts at Oppenheimer have warned.

The investment bank revised its full-year trading volume estimate, reducing it by 19% to $1.3 trillion. It also cut its first-quarter forecast to $380 billion, a 13% decline from the previous quarter, citing a drop in investor risk appetite.

Despite signs of greater crypto support from U.S. regulators and policymakers, including pro-crypto rhetoric from the White House and Congress, Oppenheimer analysts noted that the market hasn’t fully embraced these changes.

“Since the election, we’ve seen unprecedented support for crypto from the administration, Congress, and regulators, signaling that the U.S. is positioning itself to attract blockchain businesses and investments,” said Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau. “However, the uncertainty created by Trump’s tariff policy has triggered fears of a bear market, recession concerns, and a pullback in retail crypto trading.”

Coinbase’s stock has fallen 30% year-to-date, underperforming Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500, which have seen declines of 10% and 8%, respectively. While this marks an improvement from 2022, when Coinbase shares plummeted 86%, it still highlights the exchange’s vulnerability to broader economic signals.

Oppenheimer also lowered its 2025 and 2026 revenue and earnings forecasts, revising its price target for Coinbase’s shares down to $279 from $388. The bank emphasized that retail trading activity may remain subdued amid ongoing policy uncertainty. Despite these concerns, Oppenheimer maintained its “outperform” rating on the stock, which fell 1.2% to $173.39 on Wednesday.

One positive note for Coinbase is its market dominance. The exchange captured 69% of U.S. spot crypto trading volume in February, outperforming competitors like Robinhood (HOOD). However, maintaining this leadership position will depend on the market’s ability to recover from tariff-related jitters.

Despite the short-term challenges, Oppenheimer remains bullish on Coinbase’s long-term outlook.

“Coinbase’s position as a leader in the crypto space, with opportunities in tokenization and payments, gives it significant long-term potential. If tariff tensions subside, we expect Coinbase to rebound strongly,” Lau concluded.