March Jobs Data Could Be a Double-Edged Sword for BTC Bulls

Bitcoin Bulls Eye Win-Win Setup Ahead of U.S. Jobs Report

Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of geopolitical shocks is once again on display — and with the March U.S. jobs report just hours away, BTC bulls may be walking into a rare win-win scenario.

On the heels of President Donald Trump’s surprise tariff announcement, which slaps a minimum 10% levy on imports from 180 countries, markets have swiftly recalibrated. Traders are now pricing in a deeper slowdown and expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 100 basis points over the remainder of 2025, with the first move projected for June.

The Jobs Data: Heads or Tails?

Normally, strong labor market data would be a headwind for bitcoin — reinforcing dollar strength and putting risk assets under pressure. But this time, the backdrop has shifted.

Even if the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report shows solid job gains, investors may view the data as backward-looking, not accounting for the looming economic drag from Trump’s tariffs. Any dip in bitcoin on stronger-than-expected numbers may be short-lived as markets focus forward on rate cuts.

Conversely, a soft print — say, lower-than-expected payroll additions or a rising unemployment rate — would validate the market’s dovish shift and likely accelerate flows into assets like BTC.

It’s a rare moment where both outcomes favor the same side of the trade.

Market Snapshot

At the time of writing, bitcoin is holding above $84,000, well above last month’s $77,000 low — a signal that selling pressure has dried up, even as broader risk markets remain volatile.

Implied volatility is ticking higher: Volmex’s BTC IV index sits at 65% annualized, pointing to a potential 3.4% move within the next 24 hours.

Whichever way the macro coin lands, BTC appears positioned to ride the bounce.

NFP Expectations

The March NFP report is due at 12:30 UTC, with economists forecasting 130,000 new jobs, down from 151,000 in February. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month.

In this setup, bitcoin bulls might not need a perfect print — just a narrative to follow, and right now, both versions work in their favor.